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So it's spring and you aren't sailing yet?  Bottom

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  • If you are interested in racing, here is a pretty fun pastime about the rules:
    http://game.finckh.net/indexe.htm

    --
    Sheet In!
    Bob
    ___/)_____/)_/)____/)____/)_____/)/)__________/)__
    Prindle 18-2 #244 "Wakizashi"
    Prindle 16 #3690 "Pegasus" Sold (sigh)
    AZ Multihull Fleet 42 member
    (Way) Past Commodore of Prindle Fleet 14
    Arizona, USA
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  • going tomorrow

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    Captain Chris Holley
    Fulshear, TX
    '87 Prindle 19 "¡Hijole!"
    '74 sunfish "1fish"
    --
  • I think I'm going out tomorrow as well. Maybe Clear Lake or Dike... Not sure where is better with the North East wind. Certainly not beach front.

    Advice?

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    Chuck C.
    H21SE 408
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  • I know you plan to sail but your USA has the most cases of the corona virus in the world mostly because people are being reckless about staying safe and staying home Think about your 1st responders what if you need help stay home stay isolated you may be saving a life yours or someone elses!!!!!!!
  • catsailor...your USA has the most cases of the corona virus in the world mostly because people are being reckless about staying safe and staying home


    The USA's numbers are high because we travel the world. The only death here that has impacted me so far was a friends parent who was on a cruise around the Mediterranean. The case in the building next to me at work was a Chinese student who came back from a visit home with the disease.

    China is lying about their numbers. They report that the infections are down. Researchers here at the university say that is not possible at this point in the process with the density of Chinese cities and the lack of treatment. They lied about the disease for almost a month to begin with.

    I applaud your voice of caution.
    The facts disagree with your opinion.

    --
    Sheet In!
    Bob
    ___/)_____/)_/)____/)____/)_____/)/)__________/)__
    Prindle 18-2 #244 "Wakizashi"
    Prindle 16 #3690 "Pegasus" Sold (sigh)
    AZ Multihull Fleet 42 member
    (Way) Past Commodore of Prindle Fleet 14
    Arizona, USA
    --
  • Here at this university, we have stood up the ability to perform a much higher volume lab and are testing very efficiently. I think we have the capacity to run about 500 a day with 24 hour turn-around, or something like that. We will identify way more than other countries, but still testing methods, etc. are all over the board. Most in my communities are NOT being reckless - it's a bizarre, surreal world when coming and going from work. There were a few "reckless" people (I think there's a better, rated-R description) that were partying at the beach here, resulting in it getting shut down and hence my opportunity to sail over the weekend. However, sailing with my family is certainly abiding by all our guidelines, distancing, etc.

    --
    Chuck C.
    H21SE 408
    --
  • You are correct most people are not being reckless but our news feeds constantly show people on the beach in florida or california and there are
    some smart people over here that have figured out some way to track where all those cell phones that were on the beach went .All over the US and not on a small scale In my opinion your govt. has dropped the ball and too many don't understand how dangerous it is .In canada we are being told you can go out to exercise walk around the block practising physical distancing but not to socialize our parks are locked down you can be fined or charged with trespassing if you go into our parks now .You can't do watersports especially things like surfing or sailing the police will actually come and get you.I know I said too much it is a trying time for us all and I hope you all stay safe and later on hope to be sailing myself most likely not till june.
  • I am an IT Project Manager with 20+ years experience and specifically worked in healthcare on a global level for over 10 years. My specialty is in data analytics and management of offshore application/development teams. I live (professionally) in a very factual and measurable world.

    Opinions to me are like showing the cross to a vampire.

    I understand how difficult finding relevant, timely, un-biased information can be and in these difficult times I would like to share some of my favorite links:

    COVID 19:

    https://www.worldometers.…o/coronavirus/#countries

    General info of all sorts:

    https://informationisbeautiful.net/

    We are charting unknown waters with the current pandemic. Both globally and in North America we are doing a much better job than we did in the last pandemic (Swine Flu aka H1N1 in 2009). Some countries will do a better job than others. There will be a "lessons learned" at the end of this and every country will do better next time this happens.

    Stay safe and healthy,
    Brad in Jax

    2x Stiletto 27's (one for sale soon)
  • You all do realize that you can't trust the numbers published for the US either, right???

    My wife is a CCRN and an active duty military officer. Her current job has her working outside of the clinical environment, but she's well connected and is getting some information multiple days before it goes public (am not going to say anymore than that). She'll likely be deployed or sent to the local military hospital in the near future.... she's said, "I would feel safer going back to Afghanistan than going into the hospital right now". She was stationed at one of the worst FOBs in the country, so that should say a lot.

    Published reports from major cities in the US have stated that obvious, non-severe cases aren't being tested b/c it doesn't change clinical treatment. Therefore, I don't think they are being counted; note the semantics in that everyone refers to, "confirmed" cases; if you aren't tested, you haven't been confirmed. As such, I doubt those people are reported in the metics. Additionally, the military is following a similar protocol (changes by the hour) which further exacerbates the problems in the analytics.

    If you pay attention to your local news, you'll likely even see that the numbers reported there don't match the Federal numbers. Consider that there are ~3,000 counties in the US, so how good is our data integrity?

    I've been following the data very closely and have setup some basic models based on the GitHub data (what Johns Hopkins collects). It isn't pretty and won't be for quite a while now. People are forgetting that there is essentially a 2-3 week lag in the number of confirmed cases and how many people are actually sick (time spent asymptomatic but contagious plus time to develop into a mild case not requiring hospitalization and then waiting for test results) . Since we're on an exponential curve with that lag, the cases to be reported tomorrow effectively got infected two weeks ago . Estimates that I've read are that the number of actual cases in the US is between 5-10x what the current reported value is.
  • wlrottge

    I've been following the data very closely and have setup some basic models based on the GitHub data (what Johns Hopkins collects). It isn't pretty and won't be for quite a while now. People are forgetting that there is essentially a 2-3 week lag in the number of confirmed cases and how many people are actually sick (time spent asymptomatic but contagious plus time to develop into a mild case not requiring hospitalization and then waiting for test results) . Since we're on an exponential curve with that lag, the cases to be reported tomorrow effectively got infected two weeks ago . Estimates that I've read are that the number of actual cases in the US is between 5-10x what the current reported value is.


    Dead nuts on!

    You can extrapolate that conclusion by overlaying and scaling the course of current US events on top of the Chinese model and others that have progressed further in the cycle to our current place on the curve fairly closely.
  • I'd argue that you don't need to even look to scale or attempt to correlate data sets... honestly, I think that might lead to bad decisions/assumptions and here's why. One, I don't trust the China data, so throw it out. Second, each country is it's own animal; our health care systems, testing mentality/methodology, cultural behavior, distribution of population by age and other health factors, and we could go on.

    - We have better healthcare than China and Italy and the ratio of ICU beds and ventilators relative to the population isn't the same. This matters because when you become critically ill, will there be an ICU bed and ventilator for you? Will you be deemed to low a chance of survival to get or hold on to one of those beds?

    - South Korea wents crazy with testing and tested EVERYBODY; as such, they were really able to get their hands around who was sick, where they were, etc. We aren't.... heck, we aren't even testing people who obviously have it, so the metrics are skewed. Further, our death rate looks higher b/c we aren't testing and the ratio is off due to lower number of confirmed cases relative to total deaths.

    - How do Italians greet? Cheek to Cheek kissing, hmmm.... wonder if that helped the virus spread?? Also, look at how each country handled shutting things down and putting measures in place to slow/stop the spread. You couldn't lock down the US like China did, or impose a requirement that every citizen MUST install a smart phone app and report their temperature twice every day.

    - No clue how our population compares age wise, but I feel certain that we have more overweight and diabetic people than most other countries, so our at-risk population is likely higher (at least for those two groups).

    Because of those factors, I think each country is essentially their own science project. Regardless, we're on an exponential curve right now and think we'll see a false dip in the numbers due to the lack of testing.
  • wlrottgeI'd argue that you don't need to even look to scale or attempt to correlate data sets... honestly, I think that might lead to bad decisions/assumptions and here's why. One, I don't trust the China data, so throw it out. Second, each country is it's own animal; our health care systems, testing mentality/methodology, cultural behavior, distribution of population by age and other health factors, and we could go on.

    - We have better healthcare than China and Italy and the ratio of ICU beds and ventilators relative to the population isn't the same. This matters because when you become critically ill, will there be an ICU bed and ventilator for you? Will you be deemed to low a chance of survival to get or hold on to one of those beds?

    - South Korea wents crazy with testing and tested EVERYBODY; as such, they were really able to get their hands around who was sick, where they were, etc. We aren't.... heck, we aren't even testing people who obviously have it, so the metrics are skewed. Further, our death rate looks higher b/c we aren't testing and the ratio is off due to lower number of confirmed cases relative to total deaths.

    - How do Italians greet? Cheek to Cheek kissing, hmmm.... wonder if that helped the virus spread?? Also, look at how each country handled shutting things down and putting measures in place to slow/stop the spread. You couldn't lock down the US like China did, or impose a requirement that every citizen MUST install a smart phone app and report their temperature twice every day.

    - No clue how our population compares age wise, but I feel certain that we have more overweight and diabetic people than most other countries, so our at-risk population is likely higher (at least for those two groups).

    Because of those factors, I think each country is essentially their own science project. Regardless, we're on an exponential curve right now and think we'll see a false dip in the numbers due to the lack of testing.


    Good analysis. I am sure people will be working in the next few years to isolate each of those data points on a country by country basis and advise individual countries on what worked and did not work so they can do a better job. This is the same process we went through in the last pandemic.

    We can be frustrated at the pace of progress but I only get fearful when progress stops.



    Edited by bradinjax on Mar 30, 2020 - 11:56 PM.
  • Where I work, we have several hospital-based campuses. Our clinicians are on the front lines, for sure and we have the best (bar none) infectious disease doctors and researchers. My background is thick in toxicology, but not as much infectious disease, so I get the twitchy-thing when statistics are spat out.

    Yup - the data lags behind by at least 2 weeks. We're not containing and I don't believe that was ever really the intent. It's slowing it down so we could gear up our hospitals and slow down the onslaught. At least at our sights, I feel pretty good knowing the tidal wave about to hit. And it will and it won't be pretty, but hope not as bad as the stories out of New York. We DID, however find a way to run our masks through a modified sterile processing cycle so that they are safely reusable 3 or 4 times. Other facilities have as well. Buys us time for production to catch up.

    And, back to sailing - guess it's time to re-paint and clean up the boat! Got around-the-house projects galore.



    Edited by charlescarlis on Mar 31, 2020 - 12:18 PM.

    --
    Chuck C.
    H21SE 408
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  • Wow!
    I hijacked my own thread.
    Thank you all for the illumination you bring to the discussion.

    --
    Sheet In!
    Bob
    ___/)_____/)_/)____/)____/)_____/)/)__________/)__
    Prindle 18-2 #244 "Wakizashi"
    Prindle 16 #3690 "Pegasus" Sold (sigh)
    AZ Multihull Fleet 42 member
    (Way) Past Commodore of Prindle Fleet 14
    Arizona, USA
    --
  • Double wow! I JUST got that link...that's neat; thanks!

    --
    Chuck C.
    H21SE 408
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  • Chuck, you missed some good sailing this week on clearlake. We had a blast. I've been out with my kids a lot. Probably going to borrow afternoon solo

    --
    Captain Chris Holley
    Fulshear, TX
    '87 Prindle 19 "¡Hijole!"
    '74 sunfish "1fish"
    --
  • Yeah, going to hit Clear Lake with my daughter as soon as weather and time permit. I work at one of the very large, local university hospital campuses that starts with UT.... And, it's plain freaking nuts. top it off, I'm Life Safety and emergency response, employee safety etc., so stress is high. I cannot complain one bit, because our healthcare staff have been AWESOME in the face of being on the front lines of a literal war zone. Sorry, I digress; these forums give me an escape.

    Where do you launch from? I'd really love to meet up and get some pointers.

    --
    Chuck C.
    H21SE 408
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  • Of course, as appropriate...

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    Chuck C.
    H21SE 408
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  • We hit up clearlake again today and tore it up

    --
    Captain Chris Holley
    Fulshear, TX
    '87 Prindle 19 "¡Hijole!"
    '74 sunfish "1fish"
    --
  • what??? I was just there checking out launching options from the park. But not observant enough to look out over water. Great water state though.

    Probably going tomorrow, with nicer weather but lighter winds... Are there any other launch options besides the public ramp? I don't mind ramp launching, just hate trying to manage the dock with the wings.

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    Chuck C.
    H21SE 408
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