[quote=wlrottge]You all do realize that you can't trust the numbers published for the US either, right???
My wife is a CCRN and an active duty military officer. Her current job has her working outside of the clinical environment, but she's well connected and is getting some information multiple days before it goes public (am not going to say anymore than that). She'll likely be deployed or sent to the local military hospital in the near future.... she's said, "I would feel safer going back to Afghanistan than going into the hospital right now". She was stationed at one of the worst FOBs in the country, so that should say a lot.
Published reports from major cities in the US have stated that obvious, non-severe cases aren't being tested b/c it doesn't change clinical treatment. Therefore, I don't think they are being counted; note the semantics in that everyone refers to, "confirmed" cases; if you aren't tested, you haven't been confirmed. As such, I doubt those people are reported in the metics. Additionally, the military is following a similar protocol (changes by the hour) which further exacerbates the problems in the analytics.
If you pay attention to your local news, you'll likely even see that the numbers reported there don't match the Federal numbers. Consider that there are ~3,000 counties in the US, so how good is our data integrity?
I've been following the data very closely and have setup some basic models based on the GitHub data (what Johns Hopkins collects). It isn't pretty and won't be for quite a while now. People are forgetting that there is essentially a 2-3 week lag in the number of confirmed cases and how many people are actually sick (time spent asymptomatic but contagious plus time to develop into a mild case not requiring hospitalization and then waiting for test results) . Since we're on an exponential curve with that lag, the cases to be reported tomorrow effectively got infected two weeks ago +/-. Estimates that I've read are that the number of actual cases in the US is between 5-10x what the current reported value is.[/quote]
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