[quote=bradinjax][quote=wlrottge]
I've been following the data very closely and have setup some basic models based on the GitHub data (what Johns Hopkins collects). It isn't pretty and won't be for quite a while now. People are forgetting that there is essentially a 2-3 week lag in the number of confirmed cases and how many people are actually sick (time spent asymptomatic but contagious plus time to develop into a mild case not requiring hospitalization and then waiting for test results) . Since we're on an exponential curve with that lag, the cases to be reported tomorrow effectively got infected two weeks ago +/-. Estimates that I've read are that the number of actual cases in the US is between 5-10x what the current reported value is.[/quote]
Dead nuts on!
You can extrapolate that conclusion by overlaying and scaling the course of current US events on top of the Chinese model and others that have progressed further in the cycle to our current place on the curve fairly closely.[/quote]
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