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Reply to: So it's spring and you aren't sailing yet?

[quote=wlrottge]I'd argue that you don't need to even look to scale or attempt to correlate data sets... honestly, I think that might lead to bad decisions/assumptions and here's why. One, I don't trust the China data, so throw it out. Second, each country is it's own animal; our health care systems, testing mentality/methodology, cultural behavior, distribution of population by age and other health factors, and we could go on. - We have better healthcare than China and Italy and the ratio of ICU beds and ventilators relative to the population isn't the same. This matters because when you become critically ill, will there be an ICU bed and ventilator for you? Will you be deemed to low a chance of survival to get or hold on to one of those beds? - South Korea wents crazy with testing and tested EVERYBODY; as such, they were really able to get their hands around who was sick, where they were, etc. We aren't.... heck, we aren't even testing people who obviously have it, so the metrics are skewed. Further, our death rate looks higher b/c we aren't testing and the ratio is off due to lower number of confirmed cases relative to total deaths. - How do Italians greet? Cheek to Cheek kissing, hmmm.... wonder if that helped the virus spread?? Also, look at how each country handled shutting things down and putting measures in place to slow/stop the spread. You couldn't lock down the US like China did, or impose a requirement that every citizen MUST install a smart phone app and report their temperature twice every day. - No clue how our population compares age wise, but I feel certain that we have more overweight and diabetic people than most other countries, so our at-risk population is likely higher (at least for those two groups). Because of those factors, I think each country is essentially their own science project. Regardless, we're on an exponential curve right now and think we'll see a false dip in the numbers due to the lack of testing.[/quote]

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