This is a big question, and I don't know whether anyone has an answer to it. I'm raising it because I had a reason about a year ago (that I won't get into now) to think about the size and state of the market.

What has become of our sport, and where is it going? There's no question that the market is "mature" and either still in or nearing the end of its decline to a "long tail", small but steady state. Forty years ago the market for new boats was into its peak and still raging, but over the past fifteen or so it's contracted sharply. The big dog of the industry now only builds its fiberglass flagship - the H16 - and the rest of its cat product line is the far less demanding, more "casually recreational" rotomolded boats. What percentage of Hobie's business is still cats, and what is now their broad range of kayaks, would be very revealing (I haven't looked to see what fiberglass boats Hobie Europe is still building, but whatever they do they're probably not doing in big numbers either). Just about every new boat you see is now a Nacra instead of a Hobie, and with pretty steep price tags, esp. in North America where they're hit with transport costs and import duties. There are, and always will be, the small/specialty/boutique builders, and a used market in which boats will continue to get cheaper and cheaper as they get older, as it's unlikely prices will ever reverse the trend as "antiques". And Hobie alone put something like half a million boats out there over the years, so that used market will persist.

The nearest analog would seem to be windsurfers. They exploded as a huge fad in the late 70s and early 80s, thanks not only to their novelty, but also to relatively low cost, easy transportation, and low complexity that (arguably) reduced the demands on buyers in terms of knowledge and skill. And because (I suggest) they had a higher "fad factor" than cats, they peaked and died in the market faster (again, to a long tail consisting of a relatively small number of hardcores).

So this is a common thing and in no way unique to cats; many, if not most products have a market life cycle. I'm interested in "why". I even spoke to a marketing prof at the Uof Calgary and he referred me to a standard text in the field (Everett Rogers' Diffusion of Innovation), and though I ground through most of it (the case studies were interesting, but the rest was repetitive and boring as hell), it focused on the introduction and uptake of new products and techniques, and had nothing to say about the kind of life cycle decline I'm talking about.

That's about as far as I've gotten. Anyone else ever thought about this?



Edited by jonathan162 on Aug 09, 2021 - 08:41 PM.

--
Southern Alberta and all over the damn place.
*
1981 SuperCat 20 "Roberts' Rockets"
1983 SuperCat 19
TriFoiler #23 "Unfair Advantage"
Mystere 17
Unicorn A-Class (probably made by Trowbridge) that I couldn't resist rescuing at auction.
H18 & Zygal (classic) Tornado - stolen and destroyed - very unpleasant story.
Invitation and Mistral and Sunflower and windsurfers w/ Harken hydrofoils and god knows what else...
--

Time and money ... mostly time.

--
dk

Blade F-16
Hobie 14
Corsair F-242
Mirage 25 (Sold)
Hobie Tiger (Sold)
Hobie Tiger (Sold)
TomCat 6.2 (Sold)
--

I have no idea what you're trying to say about mature markets.

--
Southern Alberta and all over the damn place.
*
1981 SuperCat 20 "Roberts' Rockets"
1983 SuperCat 19
TriFoiler #23 "Unfair Advantage"
Mystere 17
Unicorn A-Class (probably made by Trowbridge) that I couldn't resist rescuing at auction.
H18 & Zygal (classic) Tornado - stolen and destroyed - very unpleasant story.
Invitation and Mistral and Sunflower and windsurfers w/ Harken hydrofoils and god knows what else...
--

I think that sailing was more democratic in the past, before carbon and modern sail fabrics. Not because of innovation but because of how the market evolved, I guess. The vast majority of options on the market are competitive boats, not many options for recreational sailors, that’s why we get 20 year old boats instead of spending unreasonable amounts of money.

First up: bare with me - not sure about "boat economics':
A lot of this seems to have come about because of the great government push back in the late 80's and 90's to tax and regulate production of fiberglass boats among other markets, as I understand it. NACRA goes "off-shore" outside the U.S. for viability and Hobie adjusts to the dwindling market that has gotten more expensive. Doesn't help that all this starts occurring as the digital age heats up and people go on-line to the "newest thing" in droves.

I used to be into RC airplanes, since a kid, graduating finally to RC Jets. Same thing happened to that hobby, with government doing a huge stomp on it (didn't like 200+ mph "drones" flying around with 2 gallons of jet fuel I guess), plus people's attention went elsewhere, easier. The hobby essentially has died; still a few die-hards in it, but not like it was when there used to be contests with $50k in prize money.

Look at what happened during the "lock-downs" - people finally got fed up living lives strictly digitally and finally started a buying binge of boats, etc. to get outside. However, as my wife likes to point out - it takes an hour to set up, hour to take down; not instant fun. Lives are packed with demand, so we tend to think of every minute not being "productive" as wasted. An entire day spent fiddling and playing/sailing? Huh.

In our curent state, manufacturers have to market "easy, fun, fast and affordable". A used fiberglass cat is not necessarily that, though it can be affordable, fun and fast. If it needs repairs, there are fewer and fewer self-reliant craftsmen to help or buy and sail. A decent, new plastic catamaran is, what? $10k minimum? More like $15k+ for what you want. There's a lot else to play with demanding that kind of cash.

My daughter has a degree in economics - need to ask her if this is typical in all or many markets.

--
Chuck C.
H21SE 408
--

We don't have the number of youngsters coming into the sport. For youngsters there are many other attractive and easier hobbies from electronic tablets, to kiting, to Sea-Doo's.
So I would offer that the reduction in sailing is due to the increase in offerings from competition >>> we simply have more choices.

A good deal has to do with demographics. Canada is an aging population. Seniors simply don’t jump into new high energy activities such as windsurfing, or kiteboarding, which is even easier to transport than windsurfers.
For the most part, the younger folks drive these new fads.
High profile events, like the Olympics can be game changers. Kids see a home Country hero winning medals, (endorsements & face recognition follow), & they say, “I want to be that guy,(gal)”. The sport takes off. Think back to Wayne Wong, skinny onesies banging of the sides of moguls. A new generation comes of age, nobody skis like that anymore.
The biggest issue with Beachcats is storage. A huge percent of the population simply has no room to keep a Cat. Growing population, with other interests, means increased competition for valuable Cat friendly shoreline. Just look at older Countries, (Europe), sailing is almost exclusively confined to “clubs”.
Sailing, in various forms, will always be around, & may increase here if our energy prices get to European levels.

--
Hobie 18 Magnum
Dart 15
Mystere 6.0XL Sold Was a handful solo
Nacra 5.7
Nacra 5.0
Bombardier Invitation (Now officially DEAD)
Various other Dock cluttering WaterCrap
--

Few to none available soft launch/landing areas for beach cats because they have to be maintained for a very few number of sailors, to the exclusion of swimmers who see a free beach with no lifeguards there to tell them what to do. State Wildlife Resource area concrete boat launches are just for powerboats on trailers, and marina staff don't understand the needs of beach cats or how they are launched. So much waterfront at lakes, estuaries, and beaches have been taken over by private development and the owners don't want sailboats landing on their property and hanging out. Cat sailing is hard to learn vs kayaking or paddle boarding, so it's hard to attract the younger generations who are too busy with social media and being ultra-productive with their time in a competitive workplace.

--
High Point, NC

Exploder A15 A-Class Catamaran
Hobie FX One Catamaran
Hobie Tandem Island Trimaran
Weta Trimaran
--

Not all factors involved in the decline of cat sailing has to do with a "mature" product. Like geepacks says, there are too many other activities that folks can do today and the percentage of the population interested in sailing gets smaller as a percentage of the total population. I also agree with sidecar ... in my early days of cat sailing, I could find a bunch of places to launch from. Today it is very limited and most are not cat friendly.

This issue is not specific to "mature products". I used to play competitive racquetball in the 80's and early 90s's. One used to fight tooth and nail to get court time and tournaments around the NE had hundreds of entries. Now, I am not sure I could find more than a few courts in a hundred mile radius. Except for a few hold out hot spots and a core of die hards, the sport seems to be all but dead. Sound familiar?

--
dk

Blade F-16
Hobie 14
Corsair F-242
Mirage 25 (Sold)
Hobie Tiger (Sold)
Hobie Tiger (Sold)
TomCat 6.2 (Sold)
--

This is an interesting topic. I'm 71 and have been sailing for 40 years and I too have witnessed the decline in this sport. I don't get out that much anymore because of health reasons but when I do I'm usually the only small catamaran out there. I think part of it, as mentioned before, is lack of good access, a place where you can beach launch and park a trailer. Here on Sarasota Bay it's all private property, some homes have their own beach and a perfect set up for beach cat sailing but no one sails. I've been sailing this Bay for 20 years and there's only one Hobie 16 I know of behind someone's home. There's a sailing club here in town with several catamarans but they never go out, most have mold growing on them. But lack of access has to be only part of it. I say this because I was in San Diego a couple of weeks ago and played tourist and took a harbor cruise on San Diego Bay. I didn't see one beach cat. Cool air, bright sun and lots of wind. A perfect So Cal day. I went over to Mission Bay, one of my favorite places where they have acres of hard packed sand and lots of parking right on the beach. It's perfect! I only saw 2 Hobie 16's. I started sailing in CA and beach cats were everywhere. I guess I'm one of these old guys that talks about "The good old days." but I'll keep sailing until I can't step the mast anymore.

--
Bill Townsend
G-Cat 5.0
Sarasota
--

Some of all the reasons posted above, plus the rise of PWC and travel sports for kids that consume more and more of the year/weekends/finances of families. And those sports are also touted as the "path" to college.

I see a lot of H16s on Craigslist - and it seems that none of them move. Except the ones I've bought.

--
Bryan in Poplar Grove, IL
Supercat 17, unknown year. Future project
Hobie 16, 1977 - died a spectacular death https://youtu.be/Y7O22bp2MVA
Hobie 16, 1978 - current boat
--

Competition from other sports, availability of cheap _and reliable_ powered boats and jetskis, time pressure against anything that might a "whole day" commitment. More people living in apartments. Etc.

People in Sailing Anarchy dissect this to death. It is real, the reasons are probably many so everyone's theory is right to some extent.

I do my part -- sail the wheels off the boats I have, invite friends to sail with me... try to get them into it... "sell" them a "share" on my boat to get them to sail it (and use the money to spruce up the boat)... post videos about sailing... help organize races and get-togethers when I can... post in internet forums nobody reads...

At the end of the day, big trends are big trends. This is the sport we know and love, I'll keep sailing with ... or without company.

I have wondered about this topic a lot. I believe that we love the hobby so much, that it is hard for us to figure out why more people don't get into it. I think that hobbies appear and are perfect for a particular demographic, and the appeal fades over time. Then, a new hobby appears that is right for the times and a new demographic. Rinse and repeat. However the love for any particular hobby stays imprinted onto the original demographic. (Cat sailing was big when I was a teen but I didn't sail my first Hobie until I was in my 50s)

A few hobbies are timeless and appeal to every generation: Surfing is one that comes to mind. Another is playing golf. Why have these remained "cool" while other hobbies have not?

Had to laugh at the Wayne Wong and the Racquetball comments. But I think you guys are spot on. Not enough room or time plays a big roll in why more people don't go for the space and time consuming hobby we all love.

I think that most of the people we would "expect" to be involved in this hobby are all kite surfing. A new hobby for a new generation.

--
G-Cat 5.7
Sarasota
--

shortyfox

...I was in San Diego a couple of weeks ago and played tourist and took a harbor cruise on San Diego Bay. I didn't see one beach cat. Cool air, bright sun and lots of wind. A perfect So Cal day. I went over to Mission Bay, one of my favorite places where they have acres of hard packed sand and lots of parking right on the beach. It's perfect! I only saw 2 Hobie 16's.

You were there the wrong weekend. I keep my H18 at Mission Bay (Fiesta Bay area), usually see at least a couple H16s any time I take it out. If I go to the part of Mission Bay set aside for unpowered or sub-5mph use (Sail Bay), I often see a couple of Nacras as well. It's nowhere near the heyday, but there's steady interest.

Now, if we could only get rid of the Jet-skis....

--
Tony H
Hobie 18
Sailing Mission Bay and nearby CA
--

Not to get too OT here, but I now find myself in the uncomfortable position of having to defend those awful things - for a specific purpose. I've never owned any boat with a motor and had every intention of keeping it that way, but, you know, "kids". They played around a few years ago on a borrowed ski and had a lot of fun, so what am I gonna do? Force them to sit on shore when there's no wind and be miserable along with me, like I have for most of my life? So we bought a pair of old cheapies ('95 Sea-Doo GTX and SPI) on a huge trailer and I added "jet ski mechanic" to my resume.

Then I realized (having watched "Riding Giants", about Laird Hamilton and the guys who invented tow-in surfing) that I could turn to this to my advantage, and my devious plan kicked in. I'm constantly scouting and trying out new lakes, and with the TF I face all kinds of problems with regard to low/no wind (or impossible directions), difficult ramp and beaching situations (think: a beachcat with a 26' beam when the main foils are raised), etc. So I'm figuring out how to make the trailer convertible between two jet skis and one jet ski + TF, and building a 22' gantry for swapping these things around. Hope to have it functional before the end of the season. If it works out, no more getting stranded out on the water when the wind dies, or not going out because the wind is blowing perfectly 90 degrees onshore and I can't get out because of the risk of the boat drifting around while I'm climbing in and burying the foils on the bottom and standing the entire goddamn boat up on the sensors and breaking a sensor arm (again - a $500 boo-boo each time) and god knows what else (again), or not being able to get from the ramp to the beach or off of the beach because they're completely sheltered i.e. zero wind. We can't wish jet skis out of existence, so we just have to figure out how to turn them to our advantage.

[/rant]



Edited by jonathan162 on Aug 24, 2021 - 10:35 AM.

--
Southern Alberta and all over the damn place.
*
1981 SuperCat 20 "Roberts' Rockets"
1983 SuperCat 19
TriFoiler #23 "Unfair Advantage"
Mystere 17
Unicorn A-Class (probably made by Trowbridge) that I couldn't resist rescuing at auction.
H18 & Zygal (classic) Tornado - stolen and destroyed - very unpleasant story.
Invitation and Mistral and Sunflower and windsurfers w/ Harken hydrofoils and god knows what else...
--

I've continued to think about (and research) this subject, and I think it's time to revive the thread, it being the off-season so a little more time is available for reflection. If you'll all bear with me, I'd like to see if we can elaborate on some of these answers, perhaps addressing them one at a time so it doesn't turn into total chaos. So, starting with:

Andinista

I think that sailing was more democratic in the past, before carbon and modern sail fabrics. Not because of innovation but because of how the market evolved, I guess. The vast majority of options on the market are competitive boats, not many options for recreational sailors, that’s why we get 20 year old boats instead of spending unreasonable amounts of money.

I don't think one needs to read too deeply here in order to see "democratic" as a synonym for "affordable". So this is the argument for the sport being a victim of inevitable technological advancement: That in a sport that's inherently competitive (i.e. people with boats like to race against other people with boats) there's going to be an ongoing search for performance improvements, and before long those are going to result in the use of more exotic (and expensive) materials and techniques, which will drive up prices until the boats are largely unaffordable. This is interesting because I see a parallel to an unevolved virus that hasn't yet figured out how not to kill its host - that racing itself may be seen as a driving force toward destroying the sport's mass market appeal. Of course, tightly defined classes are intended to prevent that kind of arms race, the technological runaway that simply makes the boat too expensive. But that still can't prevent the die-hard racers from just leaving and moving to a more-challenging class and depopulating their old one, or indeed leaving cat sailing altogether in favour of a (perhaps) newer and more affordable sport, one earlier in its market curve, in which they can be more competitive for less money.

And if we can keep this thread alive, I'll try not to flood it with continued expressions of gratitude for any- and everyone's contributions.

--
Southern Alberta and all over the damn place.
*
1981 SuperCat 20 "Roberts' Rockets"
1983 SuperCat 19
TriFoiler #23 "Unfair Advantage"
Mystere 17
Unicorn A-Class (probably made by Trowbridge) that I couldn't resist rescuing at auction.
H18 & Zygal (classic) Tornado - stolen and destroyed - very unpleasant story.
Invitation and Mistral and Sunflower and windsurfers w/ Harken hydrofoils and god knows what else...
--

I've been going to my local sailing club for almost 30 years. They still have summer camps with kids on Optis, they still have Hobie Waves (by far the most popular boat there) and Getaways, along with 420's, Lasers and Sunfish. All are still getting used.

That said, I see a lot of kids there and people in their late 40s +. Not many of the 20-30 somethings that make a sport "popular."

I don't know if I'm making a point here, just more of an observation.

I want to understand why.

--
Southern Alberta and all over the damn place.
*
1981 SuperCat 20 "Roberts' Rockets"
1983 SuperCat 19
TriFoiler #23 "Unfair Advantage"
Mystere 17
Unicorn A-Class (probably made by Trowbridge) that I couldn't resist rescuing at auction.
H18 & Zygal (classic) Tornado - stolen and destroyed - very unpleasant story.
Invitation and Mistral and Sunflower and windsurfers w/ Harken hydrofoils and god knows what else...
--

Cat Sailing in the US has been reduced terrifically for many reasons:

great reduction of launch spots (all going to condos or municipal resources)
cost of production / purchase has skyrocketed (as has more sophisticated equipment)
stepping a mast is not very easy/fun

SUP's / kayaks have none of these barriers to entry and have taken over these markets

Skills needed require a lot more time to develop than SUP's/kayaks

I asked my son, a sophomore in college this. His answer was "Our phones are our hobby." That, and video games. One of his buddies is more of an outdoors man and we fish and boat, etc. but even in those activities it's a bit of a "short attention span theater" kind of thing. We appear to have less time, when in fact we're encouraged to dart from sound bite to sound bite giving rise to the way we now live our lives. My daughter and son-in-law (both 22) are some rare exceptions - they read books, hike exercise and lead healthy/happy lives, but don't watch news nor buy into much of that mass communication stuff. They love to sail with me.

It would be nice to have a boat that's Hobie/Getaway-esque, drawing some of the form of high-performance, wave piercing hulls with decent performance, yet easy to operate with a modest price. I think Hobie was going there, but couldn't get the market.

BTW, we still have a few out training on opti's and sunfish or lasers, but I'd estimate less than a 100 or so in the Houston/Galveston area (maybe a few more?). For such a metropolitan area, that's not enough to support a full industry, I think.

--
Chuck C.
H21SE 408
--

Quote

It would be nice to have a boat that's Hobie/Getaway-esque, drawing some of the form of high-performance, wave piercing hulls with decent performance, yet easy to operate with a modest price. I think Hobie was going there, but couldn't get the market.

G-Cat was such a boat, unfortunately they haven't made them for decades.

The apparent demise in the popularity of small catamarans makes for a very interesting discussion.

I started sailing beachcats in Southern California in the late seventies. They were everywhere. The most fun was informal races out to one of the offshore buoys and back and the one who came in last would buy the drinks. There were always people sailing and lots of comradery. By the time I moved away in '95
it was fading away and I don't know what it's like today.

I now live in Sarasota and with a bay 12 miles long and with sailing year-round you'd think it would be a hugely popular place for "Wet Boat" sailing. Over the years I've sailed my G-Cat over every inch of this Bay and there are hundreds of homes on the water, many with their own beach. An absolutely perfect set up! But sadly, there's only one house with a Hobie sitting out back. Go figure. There's a sailing club with a few cats but the only ones that go out frequently are the rental roto-molds and a handful of late model Nacras that seem to have their own club. On many perfect days I'll be the only catamaran out there.

Now we can go on and on about the "Good Old Days", but really, what happened?

One more thing, I keep hearing this term, "recreational boat". Aren't they all recreational? And can't they all be raced?

--
Bill Townsend
G-Cat 5.0
Sarasota
--

danielt1263

I've been going to my local sailing club for almost 30 years. They still have summer camps with kids on Optis, they still have Hobie Waves (by far the most popular boat there) and Getaways, along with 420's, Lasers and Sunfish. All are still getting used.

That said, I see a lot of kids there and people in their late 40s +. Not many of the 20-30 somethings that make a sport "popular."

The "club" part of that adds another factor entirely: Barriers to entry both financial (club dues) and psychological (one has to make a greater mental committment to a sport in order to take that extra step). The other issue is that clubs are not specific to cats, so that doesn't help us distinguish what's happened to the beachcat market relative to unimarans.

Though it is interesting that you note Waves as being popular. Do you mean among all boats, or just among the cats?



Edited by jonathan162 on Feb 07, 2023 - 11:33 AM.

--
Southern Alberta and all over the damn place.
*
1981 SuperCat 20 "Roberts' Rockets"
1983 SuperCat 19
TriFoiler #23 "Unfair Advantage"
Mystere 17
Unicorn A-Class (probably made by Trowbridge) that I couldn't resist rescuing at auction.
H18 & Zygal (classic) Tornado - stolen and destroyed - very unpleasant story.
Invitation and Mistral and Sunflower and windsurfers w/ Harken hydrofoils and god knows what else...
--

Quote

G-Cat was such a boat, unfortunately they haven't made them for decades.

Just cause I love to argue with you
Hans made a few 5.0 turbo G-cats about 10 years ago. He hired a professional (brett moss) to race the boat in the f16 nationals in Clearwater. Brett had zero experience on the boat and did not know it's nuances and ended up t-boning another cat. IF Brett did well, Hans "planned" to go back into production ... didn't turn out well and i think production costs would have been a huge factor in this boat getting off the ground

Quote

Though it is interesting that you note Waves as being popular. Do you mean among all boats, or just among the cats?

Among all the boats. The Sunfish are almost never used. The 420s go out but it's mostly teens who are part of the racing team.

The only boat that you have to reserve ahead of time are the Getaways because they only have two (and with 3 hour blocks of reservation time, that means a total of 4 slots per weekend.) Meanwhile, they have seven Waves and all of them get wet every weekend day. They even see a bit of action during weekdays from retirees and snow-birds.

As for your comment about cost and commitments. The club costs the same as a gym membership so I don't see that as much of a barrier to entry and the mental commitment is much less. No need to look for and buy a boat then figure out where to store it, or how to rig it. I've owned a Laser 2, a Taipan/F-16, and I just purchased a Topcat K4X. All told, I've only owned a boat for maybe 10% of the time I've been a member at the club. If anything, the club makes it harder to justify purchasing a boat.

I went to the local launch spot last weekend, and was joined by a Hobie Wave w/gennaker, and a mini-cat. Three boats! But there were 7-8 drones and probably 10-15 kayaks.

Interesting - that's not how the clubs work around here. Not that I'm really familiar with any of them (I could never join any club that would have me as a member), but I can't recall ever seeing anything but relatively modest dinghys for teaching the kids. And I'm constantly on the road hunting for new places to put in, so intruding on others' clubs is relatively rare, but happens.

(Hint: Even the snootiest, most exclusive club will drag you in and shove a beer in your hand if it has a serious group of cat sailors and you show up with a TF on the trailer.)



Edited by jonathan162 on Feb 07, 2023 - 09:46 PM.

--
Southern Alberta and all over the damn place.
*
1981 SuperCat 20 "Roberts' Rockets"
1983 SuperCat 19
TriFoiler #23 "Unfair Advantage"
Mystere 17
Unicorn A-Class (probably made by Trowbridge) that I couldn't resist rescuing at auction.
H18 & Zygal (classic) Tornado - stolen and destroyed - very unpleasant story.
Invitation and Mistral and Sunflower and windsurfers w/ Harken hydrofoils and god knows what else...
--

charlescarlis

I asked my son, a sophomore in college this. His answer was "Our phones are our hobby." That, and video games. One of his buddies is more of an outdoors man and we fish and boat, etc. but even in those activities it's a bit of a "short attention span theater" kind of thing. We appear to have less time, when in fact we're encouraged to dart from sound bite to sound bite giving rise to the way we now live our lives. My daughter and son-in-law (both 22) are some rare exceptions - they read books, hike exercise and lead healthy/happy lives, but don't watch news nor buy into much of that mass communication stuff. They love to sail with me.

and

danielt1263

That said, I see a lot of kids there and people in their late 40s +. Not many of the 20-30 somethings that make a sport "popular."

I've really, really, really been trying to avoid bringing this up, because the natural reaction to it is, "Well, every generation thinks it's the greatest our civilization has brought - or will ever bring - forth, and every one before and after is inferior, and you're no different, just old farts who don't 'get' us like your parents didn't 'get' you."

Problem is, I think there's some validity to it... this time. Is gaming an Olympic sport yet?

Doug Stanhope agrees: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2n34eeXWjUQ

It's interesting you brought up the Olympics because I was thinking about that. I deleted part of my post where I was talking about recent and upcoming events at my sailing club.

• The F-18 Worlds was held there with 62 boats participating.
  
• The Clearwater US Open (for all Olympic classes) had something like 100 boats.
  
• The ILCA Midwinters East Championships is coming up and another 100 boats are expected.
  

Meanwhile in other news, last year's H-16 words had 225 boats from 22 countries.
And I think the 2022 F-16 worlds had 90+ boats? (I'm having trouble finding the data right now.)

I'm not sure how this fits into your equation... Cat sailing isn't dead, but has become less recreational? Maybe?

I'm really focusing my curiosity on cat sailing as a greater, mass-market recreation. 225 boats in the H16 Worlds sounds to me like maybe between .01% and .1% of the total number of H16s sold (I might be overestimating the total a bit, as the numbers I've seen probably include the 14s and 18s). Regardless, a couple of hundred is pretty inconsequential noise when those kind of numbers represent what used to be the market.

Quote

As for your comment about cost and commitments

I purchased my first h16 for about $1000 (i had to pay it off in installments as i didn't have $1000)
I purchased my first h18 for $400
These boats were both over 20 years old and in usable but poor condition overall

Try finding a modern boat for under 10,000

Costs of a boat are a huge factor for attracting people into the sport - not to mention the storage factor

I get it. But the 16 wasn't $1000 new, and the 18 wasn't $400 new. The original owners paid much more for them, so your used price isn't really a gauge of anything. In fact, if it means anything at all, it's that there should be - literally - hundreds of thousands of used boats just like yours, that can be had for a few hundred bucks. So that's a strong attractant to the sport, not a deterrent.

--
Southern Alberta and all over the damn place.
*
1981 SuperCat 20 "Roberts' Rockets"
1983 SuperCat 19
TriFoiler #23 "Unfair Advantage"
Mystere 17
Unicorn A-Class (probably made by Trowbridge) that I couldn't resist rescuing at auction.
H18 & Zygal (classic) Tornado - stolen and destroyed - very unpleasant story.
Invitation and Mistral and Sunflower and windsurfers w/ Harken hydrofoils and god knows what else...
--

the hobie 16 i purchased for around a grand was 13 years old at the time

On this site there is a 13 year old C2 for sale for $13,000
On this site there is a 12 year old C2 for sale for $7,900
20 year old Taipan for $6,500
10 year old Nacra 17 for $14,000
10 year old Nacra 500 for $6,500

A modern set of sails can easily cost over $4000 (main, jib, spin)

Modern boats cost a LOT more to produce, ship, rig, and maintain and use MUCH higher performance components

Quote

there should be - literally - hundreds of thousands of used boats just like yours, that can be had for a few hundred bucks.

There are thousands of legacy boats for VERY Cheap, they are terribe condition, melting into the ground, getting softer by the day

I stand by my statement that the barriers of entry (in the US) are much stronger than they were in the 70's and 80's.
Costs, lack of launch spots, competition from sports that are easier to "rig" and transport

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Costs, lack of launch spots, competition from sports that are easier to "rig" and transport

I don't believe that costs are a major factor but competition from other watersports and lack of launch sites is. "Personal Watercraft" are everywhere, on lifts behind waterfront homes and on trailers at the launch ramp. They're not cheap but are an easy "fix" for those who just want to get on the water with as little hassle as possible. Even sailboards and foilers that are much more affordable and transportable aren't near as popular as jet skis. Scarcity of good launch sites is definitely another factor, There's only one that's suitable in my area and it's not anywhere near as nice as Dunedin Causeway.

What makes sailing small catamarans so appealing is hard to explain to non- sailors especially when one considers the obstacles. What I tell people is that like a few other sports, the fun comes from being in control of something that can get out of control so quickly. When the whitecaps come up, it takes all your concentration. The times I have been able to get non-sailors out in those conditions, they get it.

--
Bill Townsend
G-Cat 5.0
Sarasota
--

MN3

the hobie 16 i purchased for around a grand was 13 years old at the time

On this site there is a 13 year old C2 for sale for $13,000
On this site there is a 12 year old C2 for sale for $7,900
20 year old Taipan for $6,500
10 year old Nacra 17 for $14,000
10 year old Nacra 500 for $6,500

And in 2001 I bought my 1987 H18 for $3500 (Canadian) and over the next
dozen years put another $5000 into it - at a time when one of the last 18s
sold new around here for close to $20K. There. I can throw numbers around
too, but it doesn't really get us any closer to understanding the the problem,
so let's not do that anymore.

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A modern set of sails can easily cost over $4000 (main, jib, spin)

And my SC19 desperately needs a new suit, but I don't have that kind of cash
to spare, so I'm sailing the beaten up old original Dacrons with totally wrong
battens. My point is that shitty sails aren't necessarily a barrier to taking a boat
out and having fun, because we're talking about average recreational sailing
and not maximum-performance racing. So once again we're talking about
something that isn't really a barrier to entry, because the boat may not need
them.

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Modern boats cost a LOT more to produce, ship, rig, and maintain and use
MUCH higher performance components

Seems to me that this was already discussed and agreed on, so I don't need
any convincing. It's what I described above as "the performance virus", to
which one adds the same factors as drive up prices on everthing else in our
lives.

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There are thousands of legacy boats for VERY Cheap, they are terribe condition, melting into the ground, getting softer by the day]

Things decay over time - dog bites man. If your estimate is right, and "thousands"
are in unusable states of decay, that still represents what - 1%? 10%? of the boats
built through the peak? Where are the rest?

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I stand by my statement that the barriers of entry (in the US) are much stronger than they were in the 70's and 80's.
Costs, lack of launch spots, competition from sports that are easier to "rig" and transport

It's very difficult to move research like this ahead if you bounce around between
factors - what I'm trying to do is isolate and focus on the various factors in turn.

So:

Yes, everyone's in total agreement that new fiberglass boats have priced
themselves out of the mass market. But I think there are still real questions
unresolved about the actual cost of putting a used boat in the water.
Everything is (more) expensive, and a recreational item like this is no
exception, but I believe that the low prices of the many used boats out
there, when compared to the price of them new back in the 70s and 80s
(and considering inflation, of course), make their affordability now better
as an adjusted percentage of our earnings than they were. But unless
there's an actual economist in our midst who can help untangle that, let's
not continue to beat it to death. I think this remains an unresolved mystery
that's key to understanding the problem.

Now, the lack of launch spots and competition from other water sports
(because we're not going to learn anything by comparing sailing to pickleball)
we can consider in turn.



Edited by jonathan162 on Feb 10, 2023 - 11:45 AM.

A Hobie 16/18 and a Prindle 16/18 or even a Nacra 5.0 probably sold new for around 5K in the early eighties. I'm just guessing, but my point is when you translate that into today's dollars, you're probably into five figures and there was no shortage of those boats. Like I mentioned in my previous post, where I live there are hundreds of homes on the water but no beach cats. These homes cost millions so the cost of boats should be inconsequential. It's just purely lack of interest, driven by a combination of the other factors. Besides, how many people participate in a sport where you get wet, cold and bruised and say they had a good day on the water? One more thing, the high prices aren't just affecting beach cats. Check out the prices of used 18ft power boats with low hours. No shortage of them out there.

--
Bill Townsend
G-Cat 5.0
Sarasota
--

Alright - some actual data points! They may not be hard numbers, but
you've got what you think is a reasonable population sample to look at.
I think you're on the mark when you adjust for inflation and reduce the
cost barrier importance, and I find the "cost... should be
inconsequential [to these people]" argument compelling. But... we have
to consider a couple of factors: First, because of the price creep
attached to the performance virus, that $5K boat doesn't exist new
anymore, so while that potential entry-level buyer in the megabuck
house may not have been deterred by a now-$10K H16, he may be if the
only option for a new boat is some carbon fiber and mylar scorcher at
$25K - I think that even the well-heeled have a limit to what they'll
spend on spec on a brand-new toy they may not like. Get out your
clipboard and start the door-to-door survey!

Also, it's worth considering whether any of those cat-deficient houses
have sailboats at all.

And I'm going to toss in one other idea, which is me presuming to do a
psychological analysis of a bunch of people I've never met: As we've
discussed, it's still possible to get into a used cat on the cheap
(fixing it up and maintaining it, of course, is another conversation,
but it's not expected to be a multiple of the acquisition cost - at
least in the short term), and I expect that present company is unanimous
in that none of us would hesitate to snag a good used deal. But does
that same thinking apply to people with a lot of discretionary cash, or
would they habitually exhibit a greater tendency to simply buy new
rather than a fixer-upper, and thus convince themselves there's nothing
available "in their price range"?



Edited by jonathan162 on Feb 10, 2023 - 10:22 PM.

There's been a collapse of young people that fix stuff up, much less have the skill sets to do it right. Not that they don't have the aptitude, they don't have the patience or want to commit the time. I've got a buddy that would just rather pay to get something fixed and he's a reasonable engineer with grew up in his dads auto shop. Don't know if it's about time or what, but they don't want to fix up stuff.

--
Chuck C.
H21SE 408
--

The notion of "the disposable society" has certainly been the long-term trend,
but I'm not sure it's a one-way trip - I think the pendulum may be swinging back.
The shine seems to be starting to come off of simply buying cheaper everythings
from China, not only because the pandemic revealed the fragility of JIT supply
chains, but it's beginning to dawn on people that outsourcing manufacturing to
the lowest international bidder doesn't do your own country much good. The
environmental pressures keep piling up and making consumers more conscious
of the greater costs of just replacing stuff when it breaks rather than fixing it;
that in turn is pushing right-to-repair legislation. And "maker spaces" (though I
hate the term) and repair cafes represent a grassroots movement (however
small) to try to extend the useful lives of the stuff we buy. Then again, I'm at
the opposite end of the spectrum from the too-rich-to-buy-anything-used that I
speculated about in my previous posting. I take pride in not buying anything
new if I can possibly do otherwise, and can't even understand the mentality of
people who do. Honestly, why on earth would anyone not go to the thrift shop
first for something that works perfectly well yet was tossed for any number
of very poor reasons?

I'm right there with you, bud. I, in fact grew up buying cheaper and fixing up so that I could have those things I otherwise couldn't afford, and still do. Watching The boat market, you can buy a very nice, used reading keel boat for the same price as a new cat. And, the same goes for the cat market in general, but storage always seems the issue. Oh Well, time to go work on my boat.

--
Chuck C.
H21SE 408
--

Alright, then I'm going to toss another idea up for discussion - I had some
time to think over the past week while pulling up about 500 ft^2 of 1.5" oak
flooring, which is an ugly and tedious job if you're planning to reuse it and
don't want it to suffer any damage.

The term that occurred to me was "generational novelty". Basically, a new
thing that has a relatively short (that is, one or two generations) lifetime
ahead of it, but isn't way down at the "months" level of pure pointless fads
like hula hoops and fidget spinners. The proximate analog to cats would
be windsurfers - huge hit for a few years, then faded completely from view,
though there are still relatively small numbers of hardcore adherents. It's
an obvious comparison because they're both sail/water sports, but where
cats seemed to get a couple of generations, windsurfing got less than one.
Or is the time comparison wonky because I'm not acknowledging how
short the cat mass market actually was?

Of course, if this is a valid idea, then why is another completely different
question. Is there a hint in the word "generational"? Is it a simple truth that
"these kinds of sports" (whatever that means...) just aren't picked up by a
second generation because that was their parents' thing and they want to
find somethng new? Because now we're getting out of the realm of marketing
and economics and well into psychology.



Edited by jonathan162 on Feb 12, 2023 - 05:47 PM.

We see this in a lot of things. mrvideo stated that golf continues to be popular, but in my area, it's a dying sport. And the cost is spiraling up, even on public courses.
I think student debt, wage stagnation, housing costs, lack of storage and access is contributing to the sport fading. It's not a terribly accessible sport. Cost of boat, even used plus fixup costs. Need a place to store it, I pay $199 a month for a storage unit for a couple of boats. Time, I have a 90 minute drive each way plus an hour setup and an hour takedown, that's 5 hours not counting sailing.
I'm comfortably retired, but this would be hard for my kids to do even though they all grew up sailing with me. In 1990, I bought a new Hobie 17 for $3000, and it was an extravagance, but we sailed the hell out of it, and I was able to store it in my garage.

The wealthy are pricing the dwindling middle class out of a lot of things too. I grew up with my parents summer lakefront cabin in southern Wisconsin. My father paid $12K for the cottage in 1965. Unfortunately he sold it when I was a teen, because it'd cost $700K easy today. Sure there's been inflation, but a lot of things that used to be accessible to Joe Average, no longer are.

ymcaclimb

Sure there's been inflation, but a lot of things that used to be accessible to Joe Average, no longer are.

Yep - this.

charlescarlis

BTW, we still have a few out training on opti's and sunfish or lasers, but I'd estimate less than a 100 or so in the Houston/Galveston area (maybe a few more?). For such a metropolitan area, that's not enough to support a full industry, I think.

This is wild. I think we sail at the same club perhaps or same area anyway (I'm at SSC), but to think that in a metro area of over 7 Million people we only have 100 to 200 sailboats out on a weekend is wild. We can't support an RS or Hobie Dealer or something like and East Coast or West Coast Sailboats or Vela Sailing Supply. KO was sort of the last thing that I'm aware of.

Also in terms of time value and money, I feel like there was more disposable income and time in the 70s, 80s, and maybe into the 90s. Now it feels as if time is money moreso and it feels as if there's precious little of it (time), so both the dollars and the minutes have to go further and sailing has too many entry obstacles in both categories.

jonathan162

...but I believe that the low prices of the many used boats out
there, when compared to the price of them new back in the 70s and 80s
(and considering inflation, of course), make their affordability now better
as an adjusted percentage of our earnings than they were.

I think the missing component to the lack of uptake to the affordable used boat market is the psychological hurdle for the current generation to dive in on something they don't know and understand. Yeah, you can get a used 1990 Nacra 5.7 for $4000, but you've got to replace the sails for $3k or more in a year or two, and maybe it needs some fiberglass work that you've never done before, and what does it cost to join a club? and it might need some trailer repair and maintenance too. And geez I'm going to need someone to show me how to do the repairs the first time and learn to sail for that matter. And none of my friends are doing this so who am I going to ask and learn from? and my friends and their kids are starting soccer and swim team and select little league or volleyball and we've got so much on our plate right now, so I'm not sure I'll take the leap just yet. Maybe next year or in a few years when finances or free time becomes more available.... I mean it's enough obstacles to deter all but the most intrigued that have a need to explore and control it with their own hands and brave enough to just jump in and figure it out.

To make sailing cool and attractive it has to start with the little people if we want to grow the sport. I mean both the young and those with normal financial means. Inexpensive Clubs with club boats and something other than optis to get the kids interested and excited. Learn to sail camps with lots of cool viral marketing. In Houston the only way to find out about learn to sail camps is if you go looking for them yourself on the yacht club web pages. Ridiculous. Start a Moana themed program to attract kids that saw the movie and thought it looked cool. Just give them rides for a start and ease them into it. Something simple to sail or ride alongs. Hobie Bravos, Topaz Taz, Waves, Open Bics, give them a ride with an experienced helm flying a hull on something that doesn't look too intimidating. When you get enough kids out and they can see other kids doing it, it will catch on (maybe).

But the phones... as someone said. Devices and screens are life now for a huge percentage of people. I can only hope the next generation - the generation where they weren't a new novelty when they were growing up will be able to have a real life outside the device also.